400 billion in cash injections in Q4. Expansion or status quo in 2020? High earnings expectations. Extreme equity valuations. More risks than opportunities. Key Points Massive and questionable cash injections in Q4 400 billion in new liquidity Why has the Fed intervened so massively? Dangerous interdependency between marketsand monetary policy Financial markets gamble on the […]
Reduced trade tensions. Rising uncertainty relating to the elections. Resurgence of geopolitical risks. +2% GDP growth in 2020. Extreme equity valuations. Key Points Real GDP growth of approximately +2.2% in 2019 and +2% in 2020 Risk of polarisation between the Democrats’ and Republicans’ political programmes Election year could prove turbulent for investors Growth in 2020 […]
Global Investment Climate – Key Points US economy will remain robust Liquidity factor will lose importance International prospects are underestimated Continuing gradual adjustment of long-term rates Return of volatility in equity markets UAE Investment Climate – Key Points UAE Economy to grow at a faster pace in 2020 Sustaining growth post 2020 Dubai set to […]
Conservatives win absolute majority. The path to Brexit is becoming clearer. Lower levels of uncertainty favourable to the pound. Long-term rates rise. BOE ready to cut rates. Key Points British voters are done with political foot-dragging on Brexit Brexit will happen In a good position to negotiate a softer Brexit Although a technical recession was […]
GDP up +0.2% in Q3. Germany holds out on the edge of recession. ECB maintains status quo. Change of outlook for long-term rates. Valuations in Europe’s favour. Key Points Q3 slightly better than expected in the Eurozone Growth in Q3 driven by consumption, government spending and exports Leading indicators leave room for doubt Consumer confidence […]
Anaemic GDP growth of +0.1% in Q3. Consumption slows. Exports contract. BOJ in holding pattern pending a government stimulus plan. Key Points GDP growth in Japan ground to a halt in Q3 (+0.1%) Exports fell further, but the trade balance is once again showing a surplus Industrial output dipped again at year-end after showing some […]
Nominal GDP has passed the CHF 700 billion per year mark. Equity valuations above their historical average. Clear overvaluation of the Swiss franc in terms of PPP. Key Points Swiss GDP’s +0.4% growth rate in Q3 comes as afavourable surprise to forecasters Switzerland’s GDP exceeds CHF 700 billion peryear for the first time Growth is […]
Global Investment Climate – Key Points Excessive pessimism ultimately favourable to growth in the US Potential economic upturn in the euro area without Germany Technical recession could be avoided in the UK Private and public sectors shore up GDP in Japan Consumption will remain the primary driver of growth in Switzerland UAE Investment Climate – […]
GDP up +2.2% in 2019. Declining nominal and real rates beneficial to the economy. Leading indicators still wavering. Rebound in long-term rates. Beware of PE ratios. Key Points Excessive pessimism unfounded but ultimately favourable to economic growth Nominal and real rates will support economic momentum The Fed confirms +2.2% GDP growth expectations for 2019 Economic […]
GDP down -0.2% in Q2. Real risk of recession. Likelihood of no-deal withdrawal decreases. BOE in wait-and-see mode. Possible upswing of long-term sterling rates. Key Points Boris Johnson’s strategy defeated by the Supreme Court Threat of a no-deal Brexit diminishes A technical recession might be avoided following the -0.2% decline in GDP in Q2 The […]
